Kim Jong-il (KIM)’s dying was introduced through the condition media on 19 December 2011, with very brief and doubtful particulars around the time, place and reason for dying. To unlock the reality, the top problem would be to examine the creditability of North Korea’s condition media.
How creditable would be the materials from Korean Central News Agency?
The web site from the condition media, Korean Central News Agency, provides updates on KIM’s daily agendas along with other important news of North Korea, in addition to pics and vids. People usually doubt if individuals materials are fabricated with regards to KIM’s propaganda.
To be able to verify the reliability of individuals photos, along with the stated some time and host to occurrences, the writer checked each any every photo (about KIM’s domestic visits) taken after he returned from Russia and Northeast China on 27 August 2011.
It makes sense: the writer finds no discrepancies between your environment condition as proven within the photos and also the weather figures retrieved in the US meteorology website Wunderground.com. For instance:
On 26 November 2011 KIM is stated to become going to Individuals Military Air Pressure Unit 1016. Based on Wunderground.com, tomorrow there’s rain fall in many a part of North Korea, including Pyongyang. The writer checked the appropriate photos and one of these implies that your camera lens is tinted having a couple of raindrop marks.
On 4 November 2011 employees from Huichon Machinery Factory are stated to become going to Mangyongdae, birthplace of Kim Il-sang. Wunderground.com revealed that it’s a day you need it in Pyongyang, where Mangyongdae can be found. The writer checked and located photos with slippery floor.
On 10 December 2011 KIM is stated to become going to the Hamhung city in South Hamgyong province. In the photos we are able to see that it’s a sunny day as the ground and tree are engrossed in snow. Do you know the weather figures from Wunderground.com? 10 December is really a sunny day, while 8 and 9 December are snowy days at Hamhung city.
They match. It might indicate the materials from North Korea’s condition media are really quite accurate when it comes to the date and put of occurrences. However, we’re not confident that individuals going to places are simply -showrooms-, and when KIM is actually giving informative guidance because the condition media describes.
Time, place and reason for dying
On 19 December 2011, Korean Central News Agency published the next pr release:
-On 17 December 2011 Kim Jong-il experienced from a mix of severe acute myocardial infarction and heavy heart shock on the running local train. Every possible first-aid measure was taken immediately but he died at 8:30am on 17 December -.
Within the subsequent press announcements Korean Central News Agency mentions the local train is -regular- and -people-line-. But sources have previously recommended the KIM’s train(s) is really specifically designed and highly guaranteed. It simply looks regular and individuals-line from outdoors, with regards to repel spies and satellites.
Every possible first-aid measure?
Jo Myeong-seon, a military general knowledgeable about Kim Il-sang, died consequently of cerebral hemorrhage in This summer 1994. It had been reported that because of Jo’s senior position, the physician-in-charge was afraid to consider aggressive surgical procedure which might save him. Exactly the same can happen on KIM.
Early each morning?
The writer checked the photos released by Korean Central News Agency and located a thing that hints on whether KIM is definitely an early bird.
Within the album with photos adopted 4 December, we are able to observe that KIM was supported by his more youthful sister, his boy along with other authorities to go to Kaeson Youth Park. They required an organization photo near a sailing-boat-like structure, and also the distant Pyongyang TV Tower was in it. Based on the Google Map, Pyongyang TV Tower is situated in the northeast of this sailing-boat-like structure. As noticed in the photo, individuals shadows are eastward-casting and lengthy, which signifies that they are going to the park at night.
The writer checked other albums and located numerous lengthy-shadow photos (though unsure from the casting direction). This might claim that KIM’s visits were usually completed in the night, that is in conjuction with the saying that he’s a late starter. Therefore, dying outside at 8:30am might not be a truth.
Throughout the path of a area visit?
As described above, it seems that materials from North Korea’s condition media are very accurate when it comes to the date and put of occurrences. The writer checked KIM’s schedule on his last 110 days (after he returned from Russia/ Northeast China visits on 27 August 2011), reported by Korean Central News Agency. The next figures are calculated:
– 19 days were allocated to area visits
– 11 days were allocated to military visits (all start after 19 March)
– On the weekly average, 1.9 days were allocated to either area visits or military visits.
Additionally, one of the 18 identifiable area visit locations, eight are situated within Pyongyang, and ten are situated outdoors Pyongyang. Some area visits were even carried out on Sunday. It implies that KIM is really quite enjoy/ busy travelling inside the condition. He or she is dying throughout the path of a area visit.
A fascinating observation would be that the locations of KIM’s area visit is very diverse, varying from farming (e.g. pig, duck and terrapin farm), industrial (e.g. dam, mine and smelting plant) to commercial areas (e.g. nursery, meat and pancake shop).
Korean Central News Agency also particulars what KIM was doing on 17 December in the earlier years:
17 12 , 2010: N/A. It had been the aftermath of North Korea’s shelling of Yeonpyong Island, Columbia.
17 12 , 2009: Going to Chongjin College of Mining and Metallurgy, in addition to Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex.
17 12 , 2008: Going to different models in Kanggye City.
17 12 , 2007: Going to Individuals Military Unit 1971.
Sustainability of Kim regime
During the time of this short article Kim Jong-not, KIM’s third boy, continues to be selected because the military mind, and most probably the mind from the condition. Can he gain the authenticity to rule as KIM did? You will find numerous factors to consider:
Kim Il-sang Effect
As you may know the daddy of KIM, Kim Il-sang, is really a heroic estimate North Korea. Partially while he and the military eliminated japan from Korea peninsula partially while he may be the founding father of the brand new Korea and partially due to the condition propaganda. He died in 1994 and that he continues to be highly worshipped in North Korea:
– so many people are still putting on the Kim Il-sang badge
– a brand new calendar system starting in 1912 (Kim Il-sung’s year of birth)
– 15 April (Kim Il-sung’s birthday) is really a public holiday
– Kim Il-sung’s you’ll need coins and paper currency
Consequently, the Kim regime came from from Kim Il-sang gains much recognition one of the people. This can help the descendants of Kim Il-sang, including KIM and Kim Jong-not, to achieve the authenticity to rule within the undemocratic country.
The need to be u . s ., and also to be strong and prosperous
Essentially, there’s just one ethnic group in Korea, the Korean. For that North Koreans, the unification of Korean peninsula is of the high priority. Simultaneously, they would like to develop a strong and prosperous nation. This describes why Kim regime always prepares militarily to attain unification, and in addition it promises that North Korea will be a strong and prosperous nation by 2012.
Undertaking economic reform would bring massive economic good things about the nation. However, it needs to be achieved in a proper time using the support from stakeholders. Otherwise, it might result in political conflicts and additional threaten the aim of unification.
Implication on Kim Jong-not
Because the grand son of Kim Il-sang, Kim Jong-not gains a comparative advantage in appropriating the energy. However, he still must be careful. Within an ideological country like North Korea, rivals could make use of -mistake- and impose ideological accusation. Mistake could include:
– putting on jeans, that is prohibited in the united states
– using Apple iphone or Universe
– any friendly gesture to Columbia, Japan or US
– overfriendly gesture to China or Russia
On the very first day of 2012 the condition media introduced that North Korea has eliminated any changes to our policy. This announcement partially serves to guard Kim Jong-un’s rule by stopping any accusation of ideological change.
This information is compiled by Ken Chan. He’s a senior analyst from Beijing Orient Business Analysis Co Ltd. Reference book: Decoding North Korea, compiled by YE Yong-lie, released in May 2009.